Currently Being Moderated

Predicting Tuberculosis (TB)

Born in India I have seen many cases of TB. Tuberculosis (TB) is an airborne infectious disease that is preventable and curable but in some countries there is a stigma and considerable discrimination towards the TB sufferers. Data Geek Challenge was the motivator for me to personally analyse and share the trends of this deadly disease. I was able to analyse and predict the trends in about 45mins (of which 20mins was downloading the software )

 

WHO is working to dramatically reduce the burden of TB, and halve TB deaths and prevalence by 2015. Data provided by countries to WHO andestimates of TB burden generated by WHO for Global Tuberculosis Report 2012 was used to analyse the trends. For more info please refer too -http://goo.gl/QtbRxs

 

SAP Predictive Analysis was used to forecast the number of TB death in India by using Triple exponential smoothing which takes into account seasonal changes as well as trends (below are the algorithm variables used) - http://goo.gl/ZDjxGs.

 

Triple Exponential Smoothing Summary:

StartYear : 1995

Alpha : 0.5 / Beta : 0.8/ Gamma : 0.5

The Base : 60241.94353238099

The Trend : 242.7169517519365

The Seasonal Indices : 1.3062963825520746

R-square factor : 1.1747219022589726

Mean Squared Error : 2.1647103181288164E7

Root Mean Squared Error : 4652.644751245056

Mean Absolute Percent Error : 14.013437896853375

Goodness of fit : 0.9730434333921768

fvalue : 697.2531298065552

 

Top 5 countries - Number of TB deaths in the world.

TB_Deaths_Top5.png

TB Deaths - Actual vs Predicted Forecast for India

TB_Death_India_Actual_Forecasted.png

(Please note: All figures shown are for illustration purposes only)

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